The provocation of the Armenian armed forces on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border (Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district) was probably due to Pashinyan’s losing control over the Armenian army.

It happened just a few days after the adoption of his notorious conception of "national security", which outlined the priorities of Armenia’s orientation towards NATO and the United States.

The struggle for power in Armenia entered the last stage when non-parliamentary opposition forces opposed Pashinyan. Armenia's ex-president Robert Kocharyan, who has been released from jail, is actively working to return to power, in particular, with the assistance of the Armenian generals, whose representatives have close ties with the "Karabakh clan".

On the eve of the Armenian provocation on the border with Azerbaijan's Tovuz district, during an online meeting with his supporters, Kocharyan literally stated the following: “... In the near future we should try to move from the “supporter” word to the “teammate” word characterizing direction of certain joint steps."

Naturally, “certain steps” can be interpreted as destabilizing the situation at the front by forces that are not controlled by Prime Minister Pashinyan.

The involvement of the Armenian Ministry of Defense and the Yerevan warlords in the provocation on the Armenian- Azerbaijani border is also evidenced by the statements of the Defense Minister David Tonoyan.

In an interview with the OSCE Personal Representative of the Chairperson-in-Office, Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk, with whom the Armenian minister regularly maintains contact, constantly misinforming him about the battles, he let slip about his intention to "take new advantageous positions."

In connection with the armed clashes on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border (Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district), it can be assumed that the provocation was organized by Armenian generals who are not subordinate to Pashinyan and intend to use the conflict as an instrument of the internal political struggle in Yerevan.

Unfortunately, the Armenian warlords did not draw the proper conclusions from the events of recent years.

Elkhan Alasgarov, PhD, Head of the Expert Council of the Baku Network

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